– Anubhawananda Analyses
(Lanka-e-News -09.May.2025, 11.30 PM) Mao Zedong, the leader of the Chinese Revolution, once said that falling into a pit can be beneficial to the mind. But as Mao explained, to benefit from such a fall, one must first realize that one has fallen into a pit. Second, a well-organized operation must be put into motion to climb out. Third, one must make a firm resolve never to fall into such pits again. Otherwise, it’s possible to keep falling into the same pit day and night, without any change.
On the 6th of this month, the Malimawa government fell into such a pit. Falling into a pit just six months into its administration is more advantageous than falling a year later. Five months after the 2024 general election, the government has lost around 20% of its vote base—some 2.3 million votes have evaporated.
It’s important to note that the last general election cannot be compared to the recent local government elections. Local elections are a unique political moment, defined by regional peculiarities. At this level, there are close connections between the voter and the candidate. Often, voters personally know the candidates; sometimes they are friends or even relatives. This intimacy doesn’t exist in general elections.
In local elections, voters consider factors beyond politics, such as personal friendships, caste, and religion. This dynamic is particularly noticeable in rural areas compared to urban ones. The enthusiasm voters show in presidential or general elections is rarely seen in local polls. Therefore, we have little interest in comparing the raw vote numbers Malimawa obtained during the last general election to those in the recent local government polls. However, we are very interested in the percentage of votes cast.
Within just five months of the general election, Malimawa’s vote percentage has dropped by 20%. Analysis of the recent results shows that around 10% of the people who voted for Malimawa five months ago did not even show up to vote. This could be due to reduced importance attached to local elections, disillusionment with the government’s performance, and several other factors.
Another 10% appears to have switched their vote to other parties, due to frustration with the Malimawa government or due to close personal ties with opposition candidates. When examining this 20% decline, we do not wish to offer soothing stories to comfort the government. The frustration of these voters must not be forgotten. Understanding the reasons behind their disillusionment is the only path out of the pit the government has fallen into.
Has the Malima government been defeated in the local government elections? Our clear answer is: not necessarily. The National People's Power (NPP or Malima) received a total of 4,503,930 votes (43.26%). They secured control of 267 local government bodies and won 3,926 member seats. The Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), which came in second, received 2,258,480 votes—21.69% of the total. They won control of only 14 local bodies, with 1,767 member seats. Malima received over 2.2 million more votes than the SJB—more than a 21% lead in the total vote share.
Malima won all municipal councils in the country, including Colombo, except those in the North and East. For the first time in history, neither the UNP nor the SJB managed to win a single municipal council in the country. Out of the 267 local authorities won by Malima, in 79 of them the party secured over 50% of the vote. Apart from Malima, the only other party that managed to do this was the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), which won three local authorities by obtaining over 50% of the vote.
Malima, which had never before had representation in the Northern Province’s local government institutions, now holds over 120 council seats in that region, showcasing its electoral breakthrough. Malima also won several local bodies in the East and the Hill Country, marking a notable victory in those areas too.
Why has a significant portion of the people who voted for Malima just five months ago become disillusioned with the government? At the last general election, the people gave Malima a supermajority of two-thirds to implement its policies and programs effectively—with particular emphasis on "catching the thieves."
However, over the past five months, the Malima government has behaved like a bunch of clueless, cowardly scarecrows. A government with a two-thirds mandate is now acting impotently. The administration has already fallen prey to the Ranil-Rajapaksa bureaucratic mafia.
Take the police, for example. The current government has no control over the police force, which acts in the interests of the Ranil-Rajapaksas. Most of its top brass are their henchmen. Not just the police, even the Police Commission is being manipulated by the Ranil-Rajapaksa faction.
Public security is deteriorating. Underworld killings happen in broad daylight every day, yet no one sees any meaningful crackdown on organized crime. The police couldn't even arrest Deshabandu Tennakoon. Former State Minister Prasanna Ranawira, after evading the police for two whole months (61 days), finally surrendered to court—making a mockery of the government. Why was the police unable to arrest someone as foolish as Prasanna Ranawira? Is our police force really that weak? No—they didn’t arrest him because the Ranil-Rajapaksas instructed them not to.
The government, despite holding a two-thirds majority, has failed to bring the police under its authority. And this is just one example.
The Malima government has repeatedly displayed both its impotence and its reckless foolishness over the past five months. The first example of this was the incident involving Speaker Ashoka Ranwala. It was a direct attack on the credibility of the Malima government in its first round. When the issue arose, the Malima administration engaged in a futile attempt to defend Ranwala. Cabinet Spokesman Nalinda Jayatissa stated that the government would not turn a blind eye to the matter. However, despite those words, the government eventually backed down. Even after five months, Ashoka Ranwala has still not been able to present his doctoral degree certificate. The political communication strategy of the Malima government is currently in a very weak state. Regrettably, what is often on display through it is a tone-deaf and foolish demeanor.
Some representatives of the Malima government who appear on TV talk shows, instead of responding to questions raised by the opposition, create new controversies—thus handing new opportunities to the opposition. The interventions of characters such as Nilanthi Kottagoda, Eranga Gunasekara, Nalin Hewage, Samantha Vidyaratne, and Vasantha Samarasinghe are examples of this. The list is long. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake often has to personally intervene to manage the damage caused by such individuals. During TV debates held prior to the recent local government elections, he had to make significant efforts in this regard.
The Malima government survives solely on the shoulders of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The public still trusts his word. That is why he is compelled to intervene in resolving almost all issues in the country. However, this is impractical. For instance, to resolve the garbage issue during the Dalada exposition, he had to abandon all other responsibilities and rush to Kandy in the middle of the night. Yet, there are nine Malima MPs representing the Kandy District, including senior figure Lal Kantha. None of them were capable of resolving the issue before the president arrived. It is observable that only a handful of people are helping Anura Kumara carry this government forward. The reckless, foolish conduct and loudmouthed speeches of many others are paving the road to Malima’s destruction. It is no surprise that many who voted for Malima with great hope are now disillusioned and disappointed.
If the Malima government is to move forward, it requires a strong centralized party communication structure. Without it, there is a real danger of everything falling apart. The party needs a unified and disciplined message that all members can rally behind. If loudmouths are given the freedom to voice any random opinion on behalf of the government, it will lead to disaster. Every careless word they utter is eagerly picked up and weaponized by the opposition and their friendly media. Their ultimate aim is to destroy public trust in the Malima government.
Can the performance of Malima’s cabinet ministers be deemed satisfactory? The Presidential Secretariat must conduct a review on this. In plain language, incompetent “Tarzans” should be removed immediately. Public Security Minister Ananda Wijepala, Trade Minister Vasantha Samarasinghe, and Justice Minister Harshana Nanayakkara are among several cabinet ministers whose performance is already being questioned. These figures may be long-standing personal and political allies of the president. However, just because the knife is made of gold doesn’t mean it won’t cut. The Justice Minister in the Malima government should have been President’s Counsel Upul Kumarapperuma. Unfortunately for Malima, he did not receive enough preferential votes in the Matara District to enter Parliament. We believe he should now be brought into Parliament through the National List and put to work. A figure like Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka could also be brought in at an advisory level to help with the task of “cleansing” public security and the police. The government must be flexible enough to draw on capable individuals even from outside the Malima circle.
In the recent local government elections, Malimawa (the leftist alliance) faced a significant setback in rural areas. A key reason for this was that some provincial leaders of Malimawa abandoned grassroots-level campaigning. They believed that the wave from the general election would carry them through this one as well. As a result, they neglected village-level meetings and door-to-door canvassing. In many villages, not even a single leaflet was distributed on behalf of Malimawa. Many voters didn’t even know who the Malimawa candidates were. This insensitive approach caused considerable damage to Malimawa’s performance. Furthermore, the fact that many of Malimawa’s candidates were newcomers was also disadvantageous. Rural people tended to vote for familiar faces, those close to them. Sometimes those candidates had helped the people in the past with various forms of assistance, which voters acknowledged with gratitude. Therefore, Malimawa leaders must pay attention to rural political dynamics.
However, the most alarming trend is that Pohottuwa (the SLPP – Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna), which secured only around 2% of the vote in the last general election, has now obtained more than 9% in this local election. Many "Pohottu Bayyas" (a slang term for SLPP loyalists), who either voted for Malimawa or the Gas Cylinder symbol or did not vote at all during the general election, have returned to their old home. For example, in the Hambantota District, the SLPP vote count has risen by over 31,000. Additionally, groups across the country who benefited economically from stone, sand, and soil-related political dealings have expressed their gratitude by supporting Pohottuwa. Taking advantage of Malimawa’s setbacks in this local government election, the elite political class has re-organized into a single front to defeat their common enemy—Malimawa—through a new round of coordinated efforts. This marks a betrayal of the people’s aspirations from the Aragalaya (the 2022 protest movement). This conspiracy has already begun, starting with the SLPP’s attempt to wrest control of the Colombo Municipal Council from Malimawa. Sajith Premadasa, who once vowed never to gain power in local government institutions by joining hands with corrupt forces like Pohottuwa, has now turned to them to secure the Colombo mayoral post for the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB). This reality is now clear.
Although Malimawa has won the local election overall, there are visible regressions within that victory. Immediate internal self-criticism must be conducted to understand how this downfall occurred. Urgent steps must be taken to recover from this situation. This setback can be turned into an advantage if handled correctly. The primary action that must be taken is to swiftly intervene and implement the public aspirations that gave Malimawa its majority. These include immediately punishing corrupt politicians, creating a culture of good governance, establishing a fair legal system for all, and ensuring public safety. These people’s aspirations must be treated as top priority. The two-thirds mandate given by the people was for this purpose—not for making loud speeches on stages and throwing verbal punches. Remove the incompetent "Tarzans" and appoint skilled individuals with real responsibility. Stop this impotent political style and begin acting with the power given by the people. The enemies of the people have been exposed long enough. The message that the public gave Malimawa in this local election is crystal clear. So act on it immediately. Let us note that any delay can lead to a major political disaster.
– Aanubhawananda
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by (2025-05-09 20:31:01)
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