-By LeN Security Correspondent
(Lanka-e-News -04.Dec.2025, 11.20 PM) For years, the United Arab Emirates has styled itself as the Gulf’s commercial powerhouse, a nation whose ports, airlines and logistics corridors sit at the crossroads of continents. But a new question is quietly circulating in diplomatic and defence circles from Colombo to Canberra: is the UAE now looking for a naval base in the Indo-Pacific?
The possibility, once dismissed as speculation, is gaining traction as Abu Dhabi’s maritime footprint expands dramatically across the globe. From North Africa to the Mediterranean, from the Horn of Africa to South Asia, Emirati-linked operators—chief among them DP World, the Dubai-based global ports titan—have become key players in commercial shipping. And while DP World publicly maintains that it is a purely commercial entity, its reach has begun intersecting with geopolitics in ways that state actors can no longer ignore.
The Indo-Pacific region—stretching from East Africa to the western shores of the Americas—has become the world’s most contested maritime theatre. China is building bases, the United States is strengthening alliances, India is expanding naval presence, and Europe is suddenly rediscovering its Indo-Pacific anxieties.
Into this crowded chessboard steps the UAE, a country whose military has modernised rapidly and whose navy is no longer a Gulf-only force.
Senior Sri Lankan and Southeast Asian defence officials have quietly confirmed that Emirati representatives have made exploratory inquiries about long-term maritime access points—not formal “bases” in the colonial sense, but strategically located footholds: logistics hubs, refuelling points, repair docks, and potential joint-operational spaces.
Whether Sri Lanka, Maldives, Indonesia or even East African coastal states are being considered remains a matter of diplomatic fog. But one thing is certain: Abu Dhabi is studying the Indo-Pacific like never before.
Several factors are driving the speculation:
1. Securing Maritime Trade Routes
Nearly all of the UAE’s economic life is dependent on maritime stability. As DP World pushes deeper into global supply chains—including terminals in the United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Kenya, South Africa, Senegal, Mozambique, Vietnam, Thailand, and Central America—Abu Dhabi has grown increasingly wary of chokepoint vulnerabilities.
The Red Sea crisis, Houthi attacks on merchant vessels, and Somali piracy revived old fears.
A foothold in the Indo-Pacific could serve as:
a strategic buffer
a forward-operating logistics platform
a guarantee that Emirati commercial empire is backed indirectly by security capability
2. Extending Influence Beyond the Middle East
The UAE has already demonstrated its appetite for geopolitical influence:
It has exerted significant political and security presence in Libya, Sudan, and the Horn of Africa.
It maintains military access to ports in Eritrea (Assab) and has established informal strategic footholds through investment in Berbera, Somaliland.
It has become a major player in the Mediterranean energy security chessboard.
Analysts say the natural next step is eastward.
“The Indo-Pacific is where global power is shifting,” says one defence official in Colombo. “The UAE does not want to be left out.”
3. The Rise of ‘Neo-Commercial Military Influence’
The UAE’s model differs from China’s military-led base building or America’s alliance-driven architecture. Instead, it relies on commercial networks that slowly evolve into political instruments, which then become strategic leverage points.
This approach is now known among analysts as neo-commercial influence:
Buy the port
Build the logistics chain
Develop dependence
Offer security in exchange
If the UAE sought a naval base—or something resembling one—it would likely emerge from this commercial template, not through gunboat diplomacy.
One of the most notable points of speculation arises around Sri Lanka—sitting near the busiest east-west shipping lanes and already home to major foreign port operators.
There are three reasons Colombo often appears on UAE planners' radar:
Location: Sri Lanka sits astride the Indian Ocean’s most vital maritime artery.
Political Stability under the NPP: The new administration is viewed as pragmatic, transparent, and open to foreign economic engagement.
Port Infrastructure: Colombo Port, Hambantota, and Trincomalee provide multiple dual-use possibilities.
While there is no official confirmation, diplomatic sources suggest the UAE may be examining long-term maritime logistics partnerships that could serve both DP World’s commercial interest and Abu Dhabi’s broader security posture.
However, any move by the UAE in Sri Lanka would face intense scrutiny from India, which has traditionally been hypersensitive to external military presence in its immediate neighbourhood.
A full-scale Emirati naval base in the Indo-Pacific remains a distant scenario. But defence analysts outline three realistic options:
Option 1: Dual-Use Commercial Port Access
The UAE could secure a long-term berth or maintenance facility within an existing Sri Lankan or Southeast Asian port, framed as a commercial agreement.
Option 2: A Logistics & Humanitarian Hub
Abu Dhabi could present the facility as part of its humanitarian and development agenda, similar to its disaster assistance approach in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean.
Option 3: Joint Maritime Security Centre
This would allow training, surveillance, and coordinated patrols without the political sensitivity of a “base.”
Any of these would dramatically elevate the UAE’s strategic footprint.
An Emirati naval presence—however defined—would add a new layer of complexity to an already crowded Indo-Pacific:
India may view it with caution, particularly if located in Sri Lanka or Maldives.
China may welcome a UAE entry, seeing Abu Dhabi as a quietly friendly actor.
The United States may interpret it as stabilising, given UAE’s counterterrorism record.
Smaller Indian Ocean states may see new opportunities for investment and economic leverage.
But others warn that more external players could worsen geopolitical competition in a region already struggling with Sino-Indian, Indo-American, and Western naval rivalries.
Is the UAE simply safeguarding its commercial empire—or is this the early sign of a more assertive Indo-Pacific strategy?
For now, the answer remains ambiguous. But one thing is increasingly clear: after carving out influence in the Mediterranean, East Africa, and the Horn, and after building a commercial maritime empire stretching from the United States to the Far East, the UAE is now looking eastward with strategic curiosity.
The Indo-Pacific is the next great theatre of global power politics.
And the UAE, quietly but steadily, appears ready to join the game.
-By LeN Security Correspondent
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by (2025-12-04 19:22:23)
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