Sunil Gamini Jayalathge writes
(Lanka-e-News -2026.March.14, 5.30 AM) The US and Israel have stated that there are several main objectives that they expect from the war that began with the joint attack on Iran on February 28th.
These are to reduce Iran's nuclear program, weaken the power of the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and create the necessary pressure to cause an internal rebellion or leadership change in Iran.
To achieve these objectives, they are using considerable military strikes, cyber attacks, and contacts with various opposition parties.
But, even with all this being done, will the US-Israeli goal of overthrowing the 'Iranian regime' and establishing a regime that is friendly to them or that they can convince them to accept be achieved? The simple answer to this question is that, based on current information, most analysts do not believe that the 'Iranian regime' will collapse anytime soon. There are several reasons for this.
According to an American intelligence estimate, these military strikes have shown that they are unlikely to cause the 'regime' to collapse. The intelligence reports also show that there is no alternative leadership in Iran and that the governance structure is very strong.
Very soon after the attack that killed Ali Khamenei, Ali Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was chosen as the new Supreme Leader. This shows that the Iranian system can be maintained by changing leadership very quickly.
Iran's security and political structure is designed according to the idea of 'mosaic defense'. According to this structure, the system can continue even if the leaders die.
Since the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Basij militia, and the regular army and regional forces operate separately, a single attack on the country will not lead to the collapse of the country.
The leadership of the United States and Israel will likely react to these attacks. The reason for this is that a long war will inevitably lead to domestic opposition to the United States. At present, doubts have also arisen in Congress about the arms stockpile and spending.
If the conflict spreads to the Middle East, it is impossible to prevent the inevitable increase in international pressure against America and Israel.
Thus, the current situation shows that it is very difficult to change the 'Iranian regime' through an external military attack. This will be made clearer when examining the results that occurred in Iraq and Afghanistan in history.
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by (2026-03-14 00:21:00)
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