-By B.A.Kader
(Lanka-e-News -05.July.2025, 11.30 PM) [The Israel-Iran war is not an isolated or extraordinary occurrence; rather, it reflects the evolving global trends of our time. This article explores this trend from a historical viewpoint, supported by credible evidence.]
The United States readied itself for the war by echoing the same falsehoods it used prior to the Iraq invasion in 2003. Its media disseminated biased and pernicious propaganda, claiming that the world would face destruction if Iran were to develop a nuclear weapon. There was no mention of Israel's nuclear arsenal or the weapons possessed by other nations, nor was there any discussion of Donald Trump's 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear agreement established by former President Barack Obama with Iran. This atmosphere of impending war was deliberately cultivated.
Trump had warned Iran to take part in the US-led Iran-Israel talks in Oman, even though Iran had already participated in the discussions five times consecutively. The sixth round was set for Sunday, June 15, with Iran ready to engage. However, on Friday the 13th, Israel initiated airstrikes and Mossad’s guerrilla sabotage activities, breaching diplomatic norms and the United Nations Charter, which forbids one sovereign state from attacking another. Israel referred to this operation as "Operation Rising Lion.
The United Nations has classified assaults on nuclear facilities as war crimes due to the potential for radiation released during such attacks to traverse borders and pose dangers to other nations. Israel's assault on Iran's nuclear facilities was a breach of this principle. Even the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), responsible for overseeing nuclear facilities, did not condemn the attack.
Prior to Israeli airstrikes, its intelligence agency, Mossad, which had infiltrated Iran, successfully compromised Iranian air defenses from inside. Concurrently, extensive drone attacks were launched. Among the casualties were approximately 20 prominent figures, including three military commanders, top level political leaders, and a leading nuclear scientist. Several military officials met their demise after receiving a deceptive WhatsApp message, luring them to a supposed emergency meeting at a specific location. Additionally, certain scientists and military leaders were killed in their own bedrooms, with their negligence contributing to this huge loss.
This enabled Israel to breach Iranian airspace with little resistance, allowing it to carry out airstrikes freely. As a result, Iran’s military command and infrastructure were significantly devastated. This rapid assault by Israel, coupled with unexpected guerrilla tactics from its Mossad, astonished the global community. Many believed that Israel was reenacting its boldness from the Six-Day War of 1967. Following that conflict, Egypt never fully regained its footing. Likewise, the international community speculated that Iran’s assertiveness and rhetoric had come to an end.
Donald Trump revelled in his success, declaring, "Those who were speaking with us yesterday are no longer among us. While we haven't formally entered into war, we have supplied a significant quantity of needed weapons and will keep doing so." He warned Iran to halt its pursuit of a nuclear bomb and come to the negotiation table. However, the circumstances shifted dramatically within the next nine hours. Over a hundred drones and several missiles launched from Iran struck the Israeli capital, Tel Aviv. This marked the first time that the Israeli populace confronted a glimpse of the suffering long endured by the people of Gaza. While Jordan successfully intercepted many of these projectiles, and American warships attempted to thwart them, some still managed to evade detection and reach Israel from a distance of a thousand miles. Iran referred to this operation as "Operation True Promise III.
Israel's Iron Dome was regarded as the best air defense system globally, complemented by America's formidable THAAD system. However, the world was taken aback when Iranian missiles struck deep within Israel's territory. This 12-day conflict shattered the long-held belief that Israel, backed by cutting-edge technology, substantial American support, and the highly advanced intelligence capabilities of Mossad, was invulnerable to any threat.
Iran survived the US backed Iraq invasion for eight years without the support of China and Russia, who were not significant players at that time. But within a few days of this war the United States realized that Israel could not survive even for a few days, both economically and militarily.
The US was completely taken by surprise. There was a prevailing concern that if the conflict persisted for just a few more days, Israel's existence could be jeopardized. Continued fighting posed the danger of other pro-Iranian militant groups—such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis—entering the fray, which could potentially spark widespread protests in support of Iran and the Palestinians across various Middle Eastern nations, including Syria.
Should Israel falter, it would undermine America's global hegemony. Consequently, the United States opted to enter the war directly. Previously, the U.S. had overlooked its allies, including NATO countries, in its efforts to contain Iran through Israel. However, it now found itself compelled to intervene and protect Israel. This urgency prompted Trump to cut short his two-day visit to Canada for the G7 summit, returning to the U.S. on June 17. Two significant events that took place during this time are crucial for our analysis.
Firstly, he imposed a two-day deadline for Iran to surrender unconditionally, threatening severe consequences otherwise. The only leader who could have urged a country that was experiencing such success to capitulate would have been Trump. This was viewed as his futile effort to persuade the world that Israel was still prevailing in the conflict.
Secondly, in response to French President Macron's statement to reporters that Trump had swiftly returned to the U.S. to negotiate a ceasefire, Trump reacted with anger shortly after he met with the U.S. Security Council, asserting, “Establishing a ceasefire is not my priority. I have many plans.” This indicated that he opted to pursue military action against Iran, possibly as a means to intimidate the country.
However, Iran took a noteworthy action in response. The following day, on the 18th, it executed a significant strike on Tel Aviv utilizing its Fattah hypersonic ballistic missile, resulting in extensive destruction at a designated location and time for the first time.
This sophisticated missile, traveling over 1,200 miles in merely seven minutes, evaded the advanced defences of both the United States and Israel to execute the attack. Following this, Iran delivered a caution to the United States, stating that if they could strike Tel Aviv, located 1,200 miles away, it would not take long to hit the nearest American positions in the Middle East.
There are 19 U.S. military bases located in the Middle East. They were seen as symbols of America's military strength. The oil-rich Islamic countries that host these bases view them as their protective umbrella and representations of their wealth.
The Iran war transformed the way American military bases were viewed. Once, aircraft carriers proudly cruised the seas, projecting power and intimidation; now, they were beset by anxiety over the possibility of being struck by an Iranian missile. America was apprehensive about the potential humiliation it could face on the global stage if such an incident took place. The uniformed American soldiers stationed at these bases now had to contend with the fear of being struck by an Iranian missile. Trump had to consider the consequences that the loss of even a few of these soldiers would have in America. These countries now found themselves responsible for protecting the American military bases they'd previously relied on for their own security.
The United States has never won a war since World War II. The United States lost the Korean War in the 1950s. It lost in Vietnam in the 1970s. It was defeated in Afghanistan. Neither Israel nor the United States could defeat the Houthis in Yemen, which have a small territory. Now that Israel is weakened, many have openly questioned where the United States is going to defeat Iran, which is supported by China, Russia, and North Korea.
Since World War II, the United States has not won a war. It faced defeat in the Korean War during the 1950s and lost in Vietnam in the 1970s, and the war in Afghanistan was lost. Moreover, neither Israel nor the United States could defeat the Houthis in Yemen, despite their limited territory. With Israel currently weakened, there are growing doubts about the United States' ability to confront Iran, which receives support from China, Russia, and North Korea.
More importantly Iran's decision to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial international shipping passage, has raised concerns among other countries in the Middle East and Europe. Despite the extensive damage inflicted on Iran by Israel's attacks, the country's missile and drone production remained unaffected. It appeared that Israel had been unable to penetrate Iran's defences, and the strength of its military infrastructure was largely intact.
In this context, it is clear that if the United States were to launch an attack on Iran, Iran would undoubtedly respond by targeting American positions. Aware of the potential repercussions, the allies of the U.S. began to exert pressure on President Donald Trump.
The United States, currently facing a debt of $37 trillion, as the largest debtor nation globally, cannot sustain another prolonged war. Therefore, Trump’s original plan was to launch a heavy short-term offensive aimed at weakening Iran and compelling it to pursue peace negotiations with Israel to abandon its atomic project. However, Iran's Fatah missile strike forced to re-evaluate that strategy.
The United States ultimately decided to rollback its initial plan, opting instead for a less confrontational approach—Plan B. This involved engaging in confidential negotiations and coming to an understanding before carrying out show-off attacks avoiding severe harm to one another, projecting an image of mutual victory. In wars, superpowers will invariably have contingency exit plan. While the fighting rages on, they engage in discreet discussions behind the scenes, a practice referred to as Backchannel Diplomacy.
A prime illustration of this is the Camp David peace accords of 1978, which established a framework for peace between Israel and Egypt. These agreements were facilitated by discreet negotiations involving Israel, Egypt, and the United States.
The Iran-Contra scandal serves as another notable example. This scandal emerged when it was revealed that the United States covertly sold weapons to Iran between 1981 and 1986, violating an arms embargo that it had imposed on the country. Ironically, this occurred while the US was simultaneously supplying arms to Iraq, its ally for its war with Iran. The proceeds from these arms sales were then utilized to support the Contras, a US-backed militant group fighting against the Sandinistas in Nicaragua, with the aim of securing the release of seven American hostages held in Lebanon by Iran backed Hezbollah.
In 2015, Iran entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal following confidential backchannel negotiations with the United States.
Discussions were taking place, both publicly and behind the scenes, prior to the onset of the most recent Israel-Iran war. As the war escalated into its most perilous stage, Qatar, home to a significant US military base and command, recognized that its interests were at risk and took proactive steps to mediate. Qatar later revealed that the United States had requested its involvement in initiating these talks.
A dramatic situation developed on June 22, 2025, when the United States launched heavy tunnel-busting bombs on three Iranian nuclear research facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—previously targeted by Israel. Iran did not intervene in the attack. Reliable casualty reports were lacking, and there seemed to be no substantial damage inflicted. However, Trump tweeted that he had reached his objective and that Iran would no longer be able to develop a nuclear bomb.
In retaliation, Iran carried out a missile drone strike on a US base in Qatar the following day, June 23, 2025. Both Qatar and the US were informed about the impending attack ahead of time. The US asserted that it successfully intercepted and destroyed the missiles. Meanwhile, Iran claimed that its assault inflicted substantial damage on the base, though it provided no proof to support this assertion. Many believe that the events were more theatrical than factual. This marked the first instance of a US military base coming under attack. Surprisingly, the US did not express outrage. Rather, Donald Trump expressed gratitude to Iran for the advance warning and for executing the attack without inflicting any damage.
The following day, on June 24, 2025, Trump announced on Twitter that an immediate ceasefire between Iran and Israel was now in effect, as per the request of both warring parties. He proclaimed that all three parties had emerged victorious from the conflict and vowed to make Iran great again. However, both Israel and Iran refuted the claim that they had asked for a ceasefire. Nevertheless, Trump, known for his inconsistent statements, appeared unfazed by their denials.
The fact that both warring parties agreed to the ceasefire is what matters most. That was due to a reason. Israel, dependent on its Iron Dome, Mossad, advanced technology, military adventures, and the US support has experienced significant setbacks. It found itself compelled to re-evaluate its core strategy for future security after enduring unexpected losses. Iran, on the other hand, faced challenges in safeguarding its extensive airspace, and its supreme leader, Khomeini, resorted to hiding due to fears of possible Mossad attacks. Both countries needed time to reflect on their next steps, which led to a reluctant acceptance of a ceasefire by both sides.
The United States and its Western allies were also in need of a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Iran was gearing up for a protracted war, meticulously executing its controlled attacks with careful planning. Despite initially facing severe loses from surprise assaults by Mossad in the early days of the war, Iran swiftly regained control of the situation, replacing its lost leaders and ensuring the safety of its drones and missiles.
Should the war persist, China, Russia, and North Korea are likely to provide active support for Iran. These emerging superpowers recognize that if Iran is defeated in this war, their efforts to establish BRICS as an alternative global order will be severely undermined. Furthermore, global sentiment has increasingly shifted against Israel's militaristic actions. Notably, even Jewish communities in the United States and Europe have taken to the streets to call for an end to what they describe as Israel's acts of terrorism in Gaza.
Concerns were voiced by many US senators that the belligerent Netanyahu was attempting to pull the US into the war. Figures like Rand Paul questioned whether Netanyahu was the president of the US. US is not ready to commit to a protracted military engagement, especially in the current environment, given its continuous budgetary restrictions to cover its annual budget deficit.
There was another important reason for the United States to conclude the war swiftly: the rapidly shifting dynamics on the Ukrainian-Russian battlefield. During the 12 days when global focus shifted to the Iran Israel war, Ukraine's position steadily weakened. Russia made significant advances in Ukraine at an alarming pace. If this trend persisted, Ukraine was at risk of falling to Russia, prompting the United States—which had invested military and financial resources in the war due to interest in the countiry's rare minerals and extensive agricultural land—to recognize the potential loss of its substantial investments in the conflict.
To be continued…..
Read Part 1 - https://www.lankaenews.com/news/4599/en
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by (2025-07-05 23:00:55)
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